Bubale Discovery Overview and Commercial Viability

Murphy Oil's Bubale discovery in Block CI-709 offshore Ivory Coast is considered commercial, according to CEO Eric Hambly. The Bubale-1X exploration well encountered 30 meters of net oil pay across two reservoirs (Turonian and Cenomanian) at a total depth of 6,263 meters in 2,376 meters of water. Hambly stated the well "found enough oil that we believe it is a commercial discovery," with the Turonian and Cenomanian features described as "very large." The pre-drill gross resource estimate remains at 340 million to 850 million barrels of oil equivalent, though no updates have been provided yet.

Appraisal Plans and Well Testing

Appraisal drilling is imminent, requiring three to five wells to determine resource potential. The Bubale-1X well was not drilled into reservoir sweet spots but designed to intercept both dipping reservoirs. Appraisal will assess downdip oil potential. After the Deepwater Skyros drillship completes operations, Murphy plans to spud Bubale-2X to evaluate downdip potential over approximately three months. Following this, the drillship will depart for Australia, and Murphy will contract another unit for additional appraisal in 2027.

Oil Quality and Reservoir Characteristics

The discovery found "very nice-looking" light oil with moderate gas-to-oil ratios (GORs), distinguishing it from other gassy Turonian discoveries in the country. Hambly noted that "oil is better when you're in a frontier environment like this." The well encountered challenging downhole conditions, causing drilling to exceed the original schedule by two months. Combined with extensive data collection (whole cores, sidewall cores, pressure and fluid samples, wireline logging), costs more than doubled from $65 million to nearly $140 million.

Development Scenario and Timeline

The most likely development involves a floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) vessel with a gas pipeline to shore to supply the domestic gas market. A phased development approach is possible, similar to Eni's Baleine project. Hambly suggested a five-to-six-year timeline from discovery to first oil, implying that with a final investment decision in 2028 or 2029, first oil could flow in 2031 or 2032. Development at Bubale could also enable commercialization of Murphy's long-dormant Paon discovery, which contains significant gas, as the pipeline would pass near it.

Future Exploration and Strategic Focus

Murphy's near-term priority is appraising Bubale and advancing it to development as quickly as possible. Additional exploration wells are planned, building on data from three wells drilled in Ivory Coast acreage. The first two wells—Caracal-1X in Block CI-102 and Civette-1X in CI-502—were non-commercial.