UK Political Transition and North Sea Oil Policy

The United Kingdom is set to have a new prime minister in the coming weeks following the resignation of Keir Starmer. The leading contender to replace him is Andy Burnham, the former mayor of Greater Manchester, who is currently the sole candidate for the position and could assume office as early as 16 July. US President Donald Trump has publicly commented on Burnham, describing him as "extremely liberal" and suggesting he is unlikely to support renewed oil and gas development in the UK Continental Shelf.

Trump's Criticism of UK Energy Policy

Trump has repeatedly criticized the UK government's opposition to new oil and gas development, specifically lamenting Starmer's decision to "close" upstream activity in the North Sea. He contrasted the UK's approach with Norway's, which has built a multitrillion-dollar sovereign wealth fund from oil and gas revenues, and warned that the UK "is dying" as a result of its policies. Trump advocated for opening up the North Sea, stating that "a lot of good things are going to happen" if the UK changes course.

Impact of Current UK Energy Policies

Under Starmer's government, the UK has positioned itself as a global leader in climate action by banning new exploration licenses and stiffening the fiscal regime for oil and gas companies. The Energy Profits Levy, one of the world's highest oil and gas taxes, has depressed investment across the UK Continental Shelf and prompted the exit of all but one of the supermajors. A major consequence of decreased investment is job losses, with the equivalent of 1,000 jobs forecast to be lost every month through to 2030 unless the government changes its approach.

Government Support for Energy Transition

The government has implemented initiatives to help oil and gas workers transition into low-carbon jobs, including the Skills Passport program. On Thursday, the government announced that over a thousand more oil and gas workers in Scotland will receive "tailored support" to move into new industries, backed by a £6 million ($8 million) fund that has already helped 400 workers retrain. Energy Minister Michael Shanks stated that thousands of good jobs are being created in renewable energy and grid upgrades, and the program is being expanded due to oversubscription. The government claims over 40,000 new jobs in "clean energy industries" will be created across Scotland by 2030, though the upstream industry and unions like GMB argue these jobs are not materializing at the pace needed to offset losses in the oil and gas sector.